I say that Modi 3.0 will not only last the full term but will end with a gusto!
Let’s just list the TOP Three Threats to it and discuss each.
- Paltu Ram Nitish will switch at the drop of the first disappointment for him.
- CB Naidu will quit acrimoniously if he doesn’t get when he wants.
- A coalition GoI will mean slowdown in implementing Modi’s much touted ‘Guarantees’.
Paltu Ram’s acrobatics.
I can go into a longwinded recalling the past form of Nitish Kumar from Bihar. I won’t as everyone knows all the ‘facts’.
What does Nitish want NOW?
He’s already the CM, so that is not even on the list.
He’s now in a do or die situation where he needs loads of money for his state, to show fast, strident ‘Vikas’ (Progress) on the ground, with enough doles to the lowest of the low strata of his state. Not going into what all he has to do; I suggest we focus only on what will enable him to do that: And that’s loads of money.
IF he quits the NDA (yet again) where will he get the money? In an improbable 30+ coalition called I.N.D.I.A ?! Not a chance! Too many claimants! That’s why he reportedly declined an invitation to be PM from INDIA.
IF he quits the NDA (yet again) he’ll go straight into political oblivion as his state Govt will fall within a day! Even if he returns with RJD++ support (yet again) his days are numbered and he’ll definitely NOT get the loads of money he needs to save his legacy, let alone his reputation!
Nitish cannot even think of quitting the NDA at this juncture, unless he’s mad enough to commit political suicide!
One down; Two to go.
CB Naidu quitting NDA
While Modi politically needs Naidu more at present politically to prop up his government, Naidu too needs loads of money to (a) build his State’s Capital and (b) transform the governance in his state which is in the fiscal doldrums and has acute minority appeasement.
So this is a mutual dependence. Win-Win.
Both Modi & Naidu are seasoned politicians. It is in the interest of both to work out a via media on political power and treasury assistance.
If Modi can do business with Mohammed Muizzu of the Maldives who won on the plank of the “India Out” slogan, then how will it be difficult to deal with Naidu? Modi even rolled over a $50 Mn loan and invited Muizzu to the swearing in!
So, Modi is too astute a politician to react emotionally to political challenges. Remember he visited USA as PM where he’d been refused a visa earlier? The man is too mature to be emotionally carried away, unlike his shrinking legions of Bhaktas!
Naidu decided to eat humble pie and join forces with Modi whom he’s described with choice expletives in the past. While Nitish even touched Modi’s feet at the NDA conclave, Naidu poured praise on Modi with just a hint at ‘regional aspirations’.
Most of all, a well-developed Andhra will yield plenty of gains for BJP too. It is essentially, a Win-Win there! So WHY would Naidu risk it, with a brute majority in the state as his safety shield?
Nah. Naidu is no fool. Nor is he an emotionally unstable politician.
Two down. One to go.
Modi’s “Yeh Sirf Trailer Hai” boast will be stopped.
Every boast of Modi’s has been on the economic front. The few political ones – UCC, NRC are easily put on the back burner for now and note that the “Modi ki Guarantee” means a steadfast commitment to the welfare of the people. Modi ki Guarantee also means a Viksit Bharat, Ek Shrestha Bharat. It is a guarantee for the development of the youth, empowerment of the women, welfare of the farmers, and all those marginalized and vulnerable who have been ignored for decades.
WHY would either Nitish or Naidu oppose this? Instead, being inside the NDA, they’ll canvass that their respective states hold the best ground to deliver Modi Ki Guarantee, thus killing two birds with one stone!
Then comes out the astute partisan politician Modi. Does anyone in their senses think he’ll gladly be dependent on Nitish, or Naidu or both?
Operation Lotus will be be put on full throttle with the amassed EB (Electoral Bond) funds, if it has not already started!
There are plenty of independents. Plenty of INDIA allies who are juicy targets. AND splitting more parties to not only weaken INDIA but also gain allies & members who prefer to get a clean slate in the famed washing machine.
Folks, note that in no way do I endorse operation lotus. Be clear on that!
But I prefer to deal with REALITY and the reality of (power) politics GLOBALLY is not what middle class morality (MCM) subscribes to. That (MCM), is restricted to cribbing in living rooms in the comfort of ACs and perhaps a drink too many!
Not only will Modi strive to reduce his dependence on Nitish & Naidu, but will actually get them to throw their weight behind his guarantees in return for what they mutually agree to get from the center for their respective states!
From Modi’s perspective, Arvind Kejriwal has been taken care of for now. Next: Watch out the Gandhi Pariwar!
Q.E.D
On X: @jsvasan
09-06-2024