OBL’s death will probably have just a fleeting effect, if at all, on his network of networks (al Qaeda) since it is common knowledge that the organisation is one of the most “decentralized” terror organisation on planet earth. Thus the actual assassination of Osama Bin Laden being announced by Obama himself is but political mileage at a time when Obama sorely needs to kick start his re-election campaign. That’s the first “bird”.
If the mighty Pakistani Armed forces, especially it’s ISI, claim they didn’t know that OBL was housed in its own safe house, then it’s pure plausible deniability. In fact it is inconceivable that the US troops could launch a ground offensive without Pakistan Army approval, that too, just 100 yards from an Army compound! Ofcourse, the Pakistanis would not want to give up the advantage of currying favour with the Americans for the head of the most wanted criminal in the world!
No, these are far more complex times. Yet, in a way, the raison d’être is pretty simple. Here it is:
OBL’s whereabouts have been known both to US & Pak for a long, long time: even before August 2010 admitted by Obama on TV. However, it stands to reason that once OBL had been ‘collared’, his killing should serve a higher political purpose for both countries.
However, the Pakistanis could not afford the death of OBL in their hands for obvious reasons: they would attract the wrath of the radical masses in Pakistan and needless to say the world which has long being saying the ISI harbours & supports terrorists. This is probably the main reason for eliminating OBL now, instead of a bit closer to the 2012 US Presidential elections.
OBL’s health may have deteriorated so much that keeping him alive much longer may have come into question. At this stage the ISI would have HAD to either eliminate him some other way quietly or have the Americans do it for them thus taking the heat off themselves (ISI). Since Obama’s popularity was facing its strongest challenge, the deal was done.
Obama would have been even keener to bring Osama to US justice. But OBL may have spoken things that would have docked both the US & the Pakistani establishment. So he had to be terminated.
But the extreme haste with which his body was buried in the sea even before the world awoke to the news, leaves little doubt that neither the US nor the Pakistanis wanted any one to get hold of how he died or the state of his health at the time of his death. In the US it would have been impossible to hide without great risk; but off Pakistan, anything was possible. Thus the speed of disposal. By now OBL must be in stomachs of the fish.
The point: OBL was dying and ISI didn’t want his death on their hands. Obama had to take the heat and the domestic political mileage as a package on condition that OBL’s body be disposed off immediately.
That Obama needed to make the announcement near midnight US time was also telling: Claim victory before it became a newswire feed and the US hadn’t yet woken up to put any spokes I this plan. Present a fait accompli.
I think this has little to do with US in Afgan or their withdrawal – which, ofcourse, will be helped on the PR front, the spin the US will give for faster retreat without facing the label of defeat.
@jsvasan
FB: Srinivasan Jayaraman